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Predicted Time 4-mile Run, 4 March 2006

Yinger Captures Predicted Time Run.

On a bright but blustery and chilly day, Tom Yinger finished second overall in the Four Mile Predicted Time Run but more importantly finished with the best prediction.

With the conditions playing havoc with the size of the field (there were more runners for the Team Ten Mile Championship in Columbia in February), the field was quickly scattered after the race started. Ted Poulos from northern Virginia grabbed the early lead, finishing the first two miles, in a time known only to the race director, in 12:30. Yinger was fifty-five seconds behind, with Tina McCubbin in third, followed by Mike Albert and John Palks.

Although there was no change in position during the second half of the race, and although Poulos ran an almost identical second half time, that's not how predicted time runs work. It's not when you finish, but how close you are to your predicted time that counts.

Thus while Poulos finished 29 seconds faster than his predicted time, his guess was immediately bettered by Yinger's 21 second difference, and since there was a twenty minute gap between Poulos and the last finishers, most folks headed for cars to try to stay warm.

The final standings became apparent when Barb Beams, who finished thirteen of fifteen, arrived at the finish line with the second best predicted time. Thus while the best actual time did not win, as it has in the past, and the slowest actual time did not win, as it also has in the past, the top two predicted time finishers were close to those two situations.

As an indication of how difficult the conditions were for this race, only eight of the fifteen runners were within a minute of their prediction, and eleven of the fifteen runners ran slower than their predictions. It was fitting, however, that the prizes given were frozen pies and cakes. On this day there was no need to keep them in a cooler.